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FNUS22 KWNS 241917

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

AND SOUTHWEST TX...



...Rio Grande Valley and southwest TX...

Updated model guidance shows higher probabilities of sustained

surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping with minimum RH values of

15-20% for a few hours D2/Monday afternoon. The latest fuels

intelligence also suggests somewhat better overlap of favorable

meteorological conditions with critically dry fuels in the 90th

percentile for ERCs over Southwest TX. With stronger meteorological

and fuel support now evident, a Critical area has been added for

portions of the Rio Grande and Southwest TX.



...Central Appalachians...

Ahead of the strong surface cyclone, gusty southerly winds (~15 mph)

are expected to overlap with a few hours of low humidity below 25%

over parts of the OH Valley and central Appalachians. While fuels

across this area are mixed, a few hours of locally elevated

fire-weather conditions are possible in areas that have received

less rainfall over the last 72 hours.



..Lyons.. 03/24/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/



...Synopsis...

The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will

promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High

Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday,

promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of

southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained

westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given

modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However,

potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few

showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree.

Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough

to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions

of the southern High Plains.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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