####018001648#### FNUS21 KWNS 150657 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$