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FNUS38 KWNS 012139

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0437 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2026



VALID TIME 031200Z - 091200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002680####
FNUS28 KWNS 012139

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026



Valid 031200Z - 091200Z



...Synopsis...

An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening

surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and

associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will

provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to

much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels

have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing

south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and

low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and

breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern

High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing

gradually shifts into the region.



...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...

...Northern Plains...

Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to

deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface

pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern

Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward

progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical

probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions

amid very dry fuels.



...Southern Plains...

Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest

and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the

southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy

conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope

drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day

4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in

addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the

impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions

of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not

receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge

for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday

where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and

breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains

as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over

Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the

morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front

arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this

time.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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