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FNUS38 KWNS 192019

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0317 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024



VALID TIME 211200Z - 271200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 192019

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024



Valid 211200Z - 271200Z



Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the

work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week

across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently

meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the

southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will

introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS

that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the

southern High Plains.



...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains...

ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near

seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next

several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb

into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week).

Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good

agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the

western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is

generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains

during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over

southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. 



Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding

the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members,

the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In

turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds

over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should

promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening

dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is

typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk

area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as

guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and

fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the

evolution of the synoptic wave.



..Moore.. 03/19/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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