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FNUS22 KWNS 200655

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...NO CRITICAL AREAS...



...Synopsis...

Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on

Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather

concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in

portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is

currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas

at this time.



...NE Panhandle and vicinity...

Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee

of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday.

This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains,

as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle,

eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers

could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region

with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be

critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs

approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area

is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in

the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture

gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion.





...West TX...

An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to

overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally

gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and

relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local

Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular

area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting

precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in

such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting

areal delineations in future outlooks.



..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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