####018002201####
FNUS28 KWNS 262144

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0342 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026



Valid 281200Z - 061200Z



Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through Day

3/Saturday before the ridge over the Southwest slowly shifts east

Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. On Day 3/Saturday, continued downslope

flow in southeastern Wyoming will bring dry and breezy conditions

atop curing fuels. Throughout the day, 700 mb winds will decrease

and northwesterly flow aloft will gradually move eastward,

minimizing upper-level support for stronger sustained winds atop the

lowest RH. Therefore, 40% Critical probabilities have been withheld

for now. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL

Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered

thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 2/Friday into Day

3/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have

holdovers from potential lightning ignitions. 



Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday as surface

troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US. Depending on the

extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow

along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be

limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will

promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. Locally elevated fire

weather conditions may arise in areas with stronger terrain-driven

wind. 



Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday, a transition to southwesterly flow

aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a

closed low develops off the West Coast and treks across the Great

Basin. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may

bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region. Despite model and

ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in

the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High

Plains), elevated fire weather conditions may emerge as a result of

the overall synoptic pattern.



..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 262144

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0342 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026



VALID TIME 281200Z - 061200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&