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FNUS21 KWNS 201536

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024



Valid 201700Z - 211200Z



The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments

made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and

latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are

already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling

below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient

critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late

afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted

across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into

the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds

should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest

TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb,

which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as

boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous

discussion below for additional details.



..Moore.. 03/20/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/



...Synopsis...

Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated

this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains

and Mid-Atlantic region.



...Southeastern NM and West TX...

A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and

phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a

result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along

the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern

Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying

conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative

humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15

mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions --

are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the

region this afternoon and evening.



...Mid-Atlantic...

A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the

Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep

boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current

guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30

percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried

sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated

area across the Mid-Atlantic region.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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