####018002254#### FNUS22 KWNS 110709 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$