####018002041####
FNUS21 KWNS 281549

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0948 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021



Valid 281700Z - 011200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND

SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...



The ongoing forecast is generally on track and no changes are

needed.  Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions remain likely

for several hours this afternoon.  Over time, surface winds will

shift to northwesterly across the critical area in southeastern

Arizona/southwestern New Mexico and while the airmass will remain

dry, temperatures will cool into the 30s and 40s in lower elevation

areas.  This wind shift may complicate any ongoing fire suppression

efforts.



See the previous discussion below for more information.



..Cook.. 02/28/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/



...Synopsis...

...Southwest...

Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen above 50 mph near the

confluence of Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico by this afternoon.

Deep mixing is expected in the region, and thus, some of this

stronger flow is expected to be transported toward the surface. In

addition, the surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten as

low-pressure develops in southern New Mexico. As a result, winds are

expected to be around 25 mph with relative humidity around 5 to 10

percent. 



...Southern California...

Offshore flow has started across southern California early this

morning, and is expected to strengthen substantially through

mid-morning as mid to upper level winds strengthen. While

temperatures will remain quite cool across the region, winds are

expected to be very strong and thus an elevated delineation is

warranted. Offshore flow is expected to continue through the day and

into tonight, but the strongest winds (and the majority of the fire

weather concerns) are expected to wane by late afternoon.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$