####018000388####
FNUS38 KWNS 272145

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0443 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2024



VALID TIME 291200Z - 041200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D5     32710585 35670499 36530427 36880320 36210218 34990225

       34350244 31840364 31390455 31490531 32710585

&&

####018003058####
FNUS28 KWNS 272145

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024



Valid 291200Z - 041200Z



Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the

western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will

quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves

onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the

southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds.

Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to

critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early

next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and

wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the

end of the extended forecast period.



...Southern High Plains...

Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this

week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As

flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to

move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting

D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should

begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the

afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with

higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With

temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should

allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather

conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical

concerns are also possible but more uncertain.



Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of

shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify

ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should

still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming

temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH

minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible.



More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into

D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading

80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee

low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and

higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range,

widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across

parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into

D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward.

However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower

owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in

the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less

likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below

normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to

develop.



..Lyons.. 03/27/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$