####018002500#### FNUS21 KWNS 120642 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$