####018001613#### FNUS22 KWNS 120709 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$