####018002335####
FNUS28 KWNS 242104

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0401 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024



Valid 261200Z - 011200Z



An amplified mid-level flow regime with multiple strong troughs is

likely through the extended forecast period. In the wake of the

first trough departing the central US early this week, strong

northwest flow aloft is expected to linger over western TX and

southern NM. Transient ridging will begin building mid to late week

ahead of a second trough deepening off the Pacific Coast. Critical

fire-weather conditions appear possible through the remainder of the

forecast period, though confidence in exactly where is low.



...Southern High Plains into West/Southwest TX...

With an active mid and upper-level pattern expected to persist,

somewhat nebulous fire-weather conditions are likely to exist

through much of the extended forecast period. In the wake of the

first departing trough, breezy northwest flow is expected across

parts of southeast NM and southwest TX D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Downslope

drying and 15-20 mph surface winds in the modified post-frontal air

mass may support a risk for elevated to locally critical

fire-weather conditions. This is especially true D4/Wed when flow

aloft is forecast to increase as a mid-level jet moves overhead.



D5/Thu-D8/Sun, southwest flow aloft is expected to strengthen ahead

of the next upper trough moving in late this week into the weekend.

Southwest flow at the surface could reach 15-25 mph and overlap with

an increasingly dry and warm air mass across the southern High

Plains. Medium-range and ensemble guidance varies considerably on

the timing and amplitude of the upper-level pattern heading into the

weekend. Fire-weather conditions appear possible each day given

strong southwesterly flow atop dry surface conditions.  At this

time, D6/Fri-D7/Sat show potential for more sustained fire-weather

conditions across the TX/NM border south of a developing lee low.

However, confidence in any particular solution at this range is low.

Broad 40% probabilities will be maintained with refinement in the

most critical areas expected as guidance converges.



..Lyons.. 03/24/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 242104

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0401 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024



VALID TIME 261200Z - 011200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&