####018000712####
FNUS38 KWNS 312202

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0500 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2024



VALID TIME 021200Z - 081200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D6     38090420 38910428 39960417 40370384 40560324 40500275

       40240233 39620217 38520216 37820239 37570286 37550353

       37680398 38090420

D6     33320473 34430476 35500444 35930410 36010360 35920317

       35570296 34440298 33700301 33170336 33010391 33040448

       33320473

D7     33650499 34440475 35060440 35500388 35510324 35230285

       34650283 33960297 33110343 32830394 32850464 33250499

       33650499

&&

####018002156####
FNUS28 KWNS 312202

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024



Valid 021200Z - 081200Z



On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will

move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a

separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the

northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote

breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the

Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit

RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather

conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio

Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided

lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions.

However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too

low for probabilities.



Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS,

OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into

the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and

somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather

concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas

that miss out on substantial rainfall. 



For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles

are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale

troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block

pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough

and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH

across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the

above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical

probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent

probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding

rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas

may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently.



..Weinman.. 03/31/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$