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FNUS38 KWNS 042207

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0404 PM CST WED MAR 04 2026



VALID TIME 061200Z - 121200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     35520367 36520214 36980061 36640016 35940041 34960172

       32660336 32330401 32490461 34190374 35520367

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FNUS28 KWNS 042207

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0404 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026



Valid 061200Z - 121200Z



Upper-level flow will split by Day 3/Friday, leading to a cutoff

upper-level low over western Arizona and a strong jet progressing

northeastward through the central Plains. The Arizona low is

forecast to retrograde toward Baja California through Day

4/Saturday. It's not until Day 7/Tuesday that this cutoff low begins

to move eastward through northern Mexico. However, differences in

the timing and evolution of this upper low movement are not yet well

resolved by the available forecast guidance.



On Day 3/Friday, the aforementioned strong flow aloft will

contribute to 20-35 mph west to southwest sustained winds combined

with 10-20% RH from southeastern New Mexico and west Texas through

southwest Kansas. Additionally, a corridor of higher probabilities

for critical fire weather conditions extends from extreme eastern

New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where sustained

winds could potentially exceed 40 mph during the afternoon hours.



On Day 4/Saturday, due to the upper low tracking south of southern

California, gusty offshore, northeasterly flow will develop across

portions of southern California. However, recent rainfall over the

last few weeks and higher live fuel moistures preclude an

introduction of probabilities. 



Early next week, the upper level pattern remains uncertain due to

differences in the forecast timing and track of the upper level low

over the southwest US and northern Mexico. However, introduction of

probabilities may be necessary across portions of the southern High

Plains and Southwest.



..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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