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FNUS21 KWNS 051545

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0944 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026



Valid 051700Z - 061200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST

COLORADO...THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND

EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...



The latest surface observations across the southern Plains/Southwest

indicate some morning fog east of the dryline, but evidence of dryer

air is moving into the higher terrain of southern New Mexico.

Additionally, satellite imagery indicates a slightly more broad area

devoid of passing cloud cover versus what earlier forecast guidance

indicated. Meanwhile, fuel conditions thought to be more marginal

near the western periphery of the Elevated area in New Mexico have

also supported large fire growth over the couple of days, indicating

that antecedent conditions are on par for today's fire threat.



The latest forecast guidance also shows that the dryline will mix

slightly farther east than originally indicated with a slightly more

northerly track of the Front Range surface low as well. This

necessitated a slight expansion of elevated conditions to the north

and east. Additionally, the Critical area was expanded slightly to

the east to account for slightly stronger winds associated with the

southern extent of the jet maximum over the Texas/Oklahoma

Panhandles and southeast New Mexico.



..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/



...Synopsis...

A deepening upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four

Corners through today, with associated lee surface cyclogenesis

across the central High Plains. This surface cyclone will shift

southeastward through the period, with a trailing dryline across the

southern/central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and

very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread elevated to

critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and

southern High Plains.



...Eastern/central New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the

extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle...

As the aforementioned upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners

through today, a surface cyclone will deepen in the lee of the

central Rockies before shifting southeastward. In response to the

deepening cyclone, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind a

sharpening dryline will promote dry, southwesterly downslope flow

across much of the central/southern High Plains. Critical fire

weather conditions are expected across much of eastern/central New

Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the extreme western Oklahoma

Panhandle where the best overlap of stronger sustained surface winds

(20-25 mph), very low RH values (5-15%), and receptive fuels is

expected. Sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph will also be possible,

with the greatest potential across a corridor from east-central New

Mexico northeastward to southeastern Colorado where a 40-50 kt 700

mb jet max will overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. 



Elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains and Southwest,

sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will

overlap low RH of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather

conditions from southeastern Colorado/western Kansas southward into

West Texas and southeastern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty

regarding the eastern extent of the elevated/critical fire weather

conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline. This will

continue to be monitored for any adjustments.



Some consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat,

primarily in the vicinity of the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles;

however, the potential for convective initiation to occur farther

west and overlap areas of elevated to critical fire weather concerns

appears low at this time.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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