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FNUS22 KWNS 051928

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0127 PM CST Fri Mar 05 2021



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



Latest guidance consensus continues to indicate dry and breezy

southerly flow prevailing across the central into northern High

Plains tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. High-resolution/ensemble

guidance also depicts more widespread elevated conditions (15-20 mph

sustained southerly winds overlapping 15-25% RH) extending up into

northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota and southward to southeast

Colorado, hence the Elevated delineation expansion. Fuels appear to

be at least marginally receptive to fire-spread throughout most of

the High Plains. While some precipitation has recently accumulated

across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, heavier

accumulations appear to have been localized, with fuel impacts

expected to be modest, particularly for 100 and 1000 hour fuels. A

couple instances of brief Critical conditions also cannot be

completely ruled out, particularly in eastern Colorado into western

Nebraska. Otherwise, brief and locally Elevated fire conditions may

occur anywhere across the High Plains, from northeast New Mexico to

eastern Montana. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the

possibility of additional fire weather highlight expansions.



..Squitieri.. 03/05/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Fri Mar 05 2021/



...Synopsis...

Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Saturday as winds

increase over portions of the High Plains (where conditions have

largely been dry in recent days). Elsewhere, locally elevated fire

weather conditions are possible, but limited fuel receptiveness and

cool weather will mitigate any additional fire weather concerns. 



...central High Plains...

An upper-level shortwave trough transversing the central/northern

Rockies will support surface pressure falls across eastern

MT/northern WY on Saturday. In response, southerly winds are

expected to increase to 15-20 mph along the High Plains. A deep,

well-mixed boundary layer featuring a unidirectional wind profile

should allow for efficient downward momentum transfer of 20-30 mph

mid-level winds by late afternoon. 



With a dry air mass already in place after Thursday's cold frontal

passage, relative humidity values will likely fall to near 20%

across a broad region from eastern CO to northeast WY/western SD

(though there is some uncertainty in the northern extent of the dry

air mass). Elevated conditions appear likely across this area, but

the fire weather concern will mainly be limited to western NE and

adjacent regions where limited precipitation has fallen over the

past few days and 10-hour fuel moisture values are in the 5-10%

range.



...Great Basin...

Surface pressure falls to the northeast with slow ridging to the

west will result in a modest surface pressure gradient over the

Great Basin for Saturday afternoon. Winds are forecast to increase

into the 15 to 20 mph range with relative humidity in the upper

teens and low 20s - especially for locations that typically see

downslope warming/drying under southwesterly flow regimes. Areas of

elevated conditions appear most likely across southeast NV into

southwest UT, but fuels remain largely unreceptive and will limit

the fire weather concern.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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