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FNUS22 KWNS 100703

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO

WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...



...Synopsis...

Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the

West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak

will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the

same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB

Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the

northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface

front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated

conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during

the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT

into west-central ND.



...Northern into the Central Plains...

Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote

deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during

the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and

15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a

combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer

west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained

west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25

percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH

atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into

west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther

south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft

will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with

10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to

locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind

shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with

increasing RH and cooling temperatures.



..Weinman.. 05/10/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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