####018002981#### FNUS28 KWNS 072157 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Sun Mar 07 2021 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z During the Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday period, a series of surface cyclones will develop along the lee of the southern Rockies and eject into the Plains as stronger flow aloft from a slowly eastward advancing upper trough overspreads the southern High Plains. Multiple days of very dry downslope/gradient flow are expected to promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread given drying fuels across the south-central U.S. Some downslope flow may linger across eastern New Mexico into Far West/southwest Texas into Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, but divergence in model solutions and resultant forecast uncertainty preclude Critical probabilities at this time. Early in the extended period (Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday), a surface high will move out into the Atlantic, with dry air lingering across the east-central/southeast CONUS. Wildfire-spread concerns however, are expected to remain localized given expected weak surface wind speeds. ...Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Southern High Plains... The first in a series of developing surface cyclones is expected to deepen along the Colorado/Kansas border Tuesday Afternoon, as 50+ kts of 500 mb flow overspread the southern High Plains. 10-20% RH is expected to overlap with a 20+ mph sustained westerly surface wind field for multiple hours, hence the maintenance of 40/70% Critical probabilities. As the core of the stronger mid-level flow approaches the southern High Plains, the first surface cyclone will eject into the mid-Mississippi Valley while a second surface cyclone rapidly develops across the southern High Plains Day 4/Wednesday. Multiple guidance members depict widespread critical surface winds/RH across much of the southern High Plains. A relatively broad 70% delineation was added this outlook for Day 4/Wednesday given the strong consensus among guidance members, with some consistency also noted. On Day 5/Thursday, the upper trough axis is expected to make little eastward advance, with a third surface cyclone developing across the southern High Plains as the second cyclone moves off to the east. Mid-range guidance consensus is a bit weaker compared to Day 4/Wednesday, though there is some agreement on strong/dry westerly flow across far southeast New Mexico, with 70% Critical probabilities added. By Day 6/Friday, the upper trough axis is expected to traverse the southern High Plains, with the stronger flow aloft becoming displaced farther east into the Plains, away from the drier surface air. Still, some dry and breezy conditions prompting wildfire-spread concerns may linger across southeast New Mexico, with 40% Critical probabilities added. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018000802#### FNUS38 KWNS 072157 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2021 VALID TIME 091200Z - 151200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 34140546 36540419 37110363 37280323 37460154 37410085 37320052 37070045 36440065 35000218 34330285 33980321 33770356 33790446 34140546 D4 32730758 33220676 34130529 36390413 37610377 38130315 38290221 38250164 37790054 36980013 36390030 35320108 33050220 31760329 31580390 31550484 32000762 32230787 32730758 D5 33230487 34070401 34340315 34200230 33760216 33390242 32990302 32330356 32070408 31960438 32020479 32290516 32540523 32910505 33230487 &&