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FNUS21 KWNS 301700

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024



Valid 301700Z - 311200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN

TX/OK PANHANDLES...



Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the

southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and

high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous

discussion below.



The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area

along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative

humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon

(mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear

skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel

westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained

southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon.

Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall

totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread

(70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data).



..Weinman.. 03/30/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/



...Synopsis...

A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast

today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will

overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee

cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The

combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions

across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to

dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of

20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an

increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across

eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. 



A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central

Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained

surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a

large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a

region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and

therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should

remain minimal.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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