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FNUS21 KWNS 051649

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 051700Z - 061200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS...



No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. 



Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the southern to

central High Plains this afternoon. Morning visible satellite

imagery shows mostly sunny conditions across much of western Texas

and southern New Mexico with broken high clouds into northern New

Mexico/Colorado/Texas Panhandle. Humidity across the Critical region

is largely below 20 percent as of 16z, with winds gusting 30-40 mph.

While some increase in high clouds is expected through the day,

daytime heating and mixing will support further relative humidity

reductions, dropping as low as 10-15%. As previously mentioned,

localized areas of Extremely Critical fire weather will be possible,

most likely over east-central Colorado. Given the low confidence in

coverage of these conditions, the current outlook covers the threat

appropriately with no updates needed.



..Thornton.. 04/05/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/



...Synopsis...

...Southern to Central High Plains...

Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire

weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains.

Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH

recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and

west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will

maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th

percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across

the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor

imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls

are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a

more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day.

This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph

(gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. 



Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the

10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of

single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas

that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon,

allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer

mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on

spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests

this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets

of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread,

sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show

that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should

see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat.



...Wyoming into Montana...

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected

across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon.

Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should

promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph

winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally,

a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale

ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry,

deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well

below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. 



...North Dakota...

Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of

central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday

across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with

diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range

this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions

are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk

highlights.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$