####018001766####
FNUS28 KWNS 302201

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024



Valid 011200Z - 071200Z



On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel

southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an

associated cold front overspreads the region. While related

early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope

warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours

of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds

across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of

fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are

expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across

portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day

4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions.

However, confidence in the development of any more than locally

critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this

time. 



Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit

fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday

-Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the

depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the

central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS

trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports

the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher

probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding

preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time.



..Weinman.. 03/30/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000433####
FNUS38 KWNS 302201

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0459 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2024



VALID TIME 011200Z - 071200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     30270482 31300454 32270434 32800387 32860307 32750235

       32200187 30930220 30100212 29760230 29560265 28930298

       28900338 29620463 30270482

&&