####018000838####
FNUS38 KWNS 052029

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0327 PM CDT FRI APR 05 2024



VALID TIME 061200Z - 121200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     33760538 34380528 35440481 36520388 37090395 37390434

       37750463 38230457 38440442 38540410 38410365 38180332

       37970274 37900210 37980125 38330041 38449981 38319899

       37689854 36559852 35599875 34079935 33329970 32400010

       31420095 30810209 30700309 30670358 30660453 30870545

       31350613 31660647 31690708 32560706 32820664 32750566

       33050547 33760538

D4     33780344 33740437 33790503 33930559 34660587 35050587

       35320559 35520511 35590421 35430306 35210248 34770214

       34210217 33810256 33780344

&&

####018002279####
FNUS28 KWNS 052029

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 071200Z - 131200Z



Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the

southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where

fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A

fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High

Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions

of the Texas Panhandle. 



...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains...

Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt

500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day

3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over

the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline

advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be

overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the

front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a

tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained

westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15

percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is

expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly

dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The

primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures

behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could

compensate for this.



Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist

across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope

drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical

fire-weather conditions are expected. 



Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern

High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another

low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities

are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any

more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher

probabilities at this time.



..Weinman.. 04/05/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$