####018003171#### FNUS21 KWNS 100709 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An broad upper-level trough continues to move onshore across the West Coast as a leading shortwave impulse propagates to the northeast out of the Four-Corners region within a mean southwesterly flow regime. A surface low noted over east CO/west KS will deepen as it translates northeast with the shortwave trough through the day. As a result, a trailing lee trough/dryline will migrate east as well, allowing for a broad swath of west/southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Downslope winds off the southern Rockies along with strong flow aloft will support dry, windy conditions and a widespread fire weather threat from southern New Mexico to central Kansas. ...Southern New Mexico and the southern High Plains... The forecast remains on track with widespread elevated to critical conditions likely for several hours this afternoon. Recent fuel analyses continue to show receptive fine fuels in place with 10-hour fuel moisture values generally between 4-8%. Observed surface trends show dewpoints have fallen across southern/eastern NM over the past 12-24 hours. Regional 00 UTC soundings also reveal dry conditions with deep, well-mixed boundary layers under a mid-level dry slot (per recent water-vapor imagery). These observed trends support the forecast and the potential for widespread relative humidity values below 15%. Mostly clear skies today will allow for ample diurnal warming and deep boundary-layer mixing by late afternoon. Downward transport of stronger mid-level flow within this layer will support wind gusts up to 35-45 mph amid sustained winds between 20-30 mph. While widespread humidity values in the 10-15% range with winds between 20-25 mph appear to be the most likely scenario across much of the critical area, more aggressive solutions show the potential for brief extremely critical meteorological conditions across southern to eastern NM with RH near 5% and sustained winds around 30 mph. However, these conditions are not expected to be widespread or persistent. Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the potential for elevated conditions as far northeast as central KS, and some solutions suggest elevated wind/RH combinations may reach into far southwest IA/southeast NE (though confidence in this potential is low). ...Western Carolinas/Virginia... Dry conditions are expected once again this afternoon with RH values falling to near 20%. The eastward shift of the surface high will allow for weak moisture advection into the region through the day. However,southwesterly winds increasing to around 10-15 mph may overlap with diurnal humidity minimums and support brief/localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 03/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$