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FNUS21 KWNS 061638

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 061700Z - 071200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

CO...OK PANHANDLE... AND SOUTHWEST KS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across portions of

southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern

Kansas today. Potential for rapid spread of any new fires that

develop will be high.



A deepening surface low is observed across eastern Colorado in

morning analysis. Strengthening pressure gradients and strong mass

response with this feature is evident, with gusts 55+ mph have been

observed across the northern Texas Panhandle and northwestern

Kansas. Wind speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon,

with dangerous fire weather conditions across much of the southern

High Plains as daytime heating and mixing leads to relative humidity

reductions in the teens. Conditions will change rapidly with the

eastern movement of the dry line and cold front this afternoon.

Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels are highly receptive to fire

spread, with more rapid drying than forecast from Friday's hot, dry,

and windy conditions. As the cold front passes, temperatures will

cool into the mid 50s to 60s, which will hopefully work to suppress

fire spread potential.



The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook characterizes this threat well,

with only a minor southward adjustment of the Elevated across the

Texas Big Bend region.



..Thornton.. 04/06/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/



...Synopsis...

Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions

are expected today across much of the southern High Plains.

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts the gradual eastward

translation of a robust upper trough over the western CONUS. An

embedded shortwave trough, evident by an attendant mid-level jet

streak in upper air analyses, is rounding the base of the trough and

is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by around peak

heating. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High

Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough with rapid deepening of

a lee cyclone expected by late morning across parts of CO/NE.

Strengthening gradient winds in the vicinity of the surface low will

promote widespread fire weather concerns - particularly behind a

Pacific front/dryline as it mixes east across the High Plains

through midday. 



Forecast guidance continues to show high probability for sustained

winds between 20-30 mph from the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX

to eastern CO/western KS. 00 UTC soundings and 06 UTC surface

observations sampled very dry conditions within the low-level

thermal ridge along the southern High Plains. This air mass will

undergo further drying within the westerly downslope flow regime

later today with RH minimums between 10-15%. Reports of wildfire

activity over the past 24 hours across the southern Plains

corroborates the rapid drying depicted in recent fuel guidance.

Consequently, a high-end critical fire weather environment is

expected across much of the southern Plains region. 



Extremely critical conditions are probable across southeast CO to

southwest KS and into the OK Panhandle. Ensemble guidance suggests

that sustained winds above 30 mph and sub-10% RH both reside within

the top (bottom) 10th percentile of their respective distributions;

however, observations from Friday afternoon show that conditions

were windier/drier compared to what most guidance had depicted. This

trend nudges confidence enough to warrant introducing an Extremely

Critical risk area across the CO/KS/OK region where guidance has

consistently shown the best signal for sustained extremely critical

conditions over the past 48 hours. Regardless, wind gusts upwards of

45-55 mph will support transient extremely critical conditions

further south into the TX Panhandle and west TX as well. 



...Central KS...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of central KS by

early afternoon. Poor moisture return will likely yield high-based

convection that may feature little precipitation. This activity is

forecast to quickly move east along the dryline, followed by

elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consequently,

lightning starts may be exacerbated by the rapid onset of fire

weather conditions. 



...Northern Plains...

Another day of strong, 20-30 mph sustained winds is expected across

the Dakotas into parts of MN and IA. Cooler temperatures within a

residual continental air mass should keep RH values above elevated

thresholds, but the breezy winds and cured fine fuels may support a

wind-driven fire weather concern.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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