####018000721####
FNUS38 KWNS 102143

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0341 PM CST WED MAR 10 2021



VALID TIME 121200Z - 181200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     32600781 33550706 34220670 35080584 35480542 35950478

       36140433 35720405 35210419 34850433 34230475 33690532

       33470565 33090600 32700675 32430718 32300773 32600781

D4     33730463 34420415 34840323 34580268 33460243 32950233

       32170237 31600265 31240352 31340425 32130451 32750467

       33730463

D5     32960508 33970482 34520433 34660392 34360351 32690314

       31920302 31540330 31260414 31600479 32960508

&&

####018003835####
FNUS28 KWNS 102143

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0341 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021



Valid 121200Z - 181200Z



An upper trough is expected to morph into a cutoff low while slowly

drifting eastward across the southwest and south-central CONUS Days

3-6/Friday-Monday. A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is

expected to quickly follow Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday. This active

upper pattern will promote dry and breezy conditions across portions

of the southwest into southern High Plains every day through the

forecast period. However, uncertainties associated with Day

4/Saturday precipitation across the southern High Plains and

placement of the upper trough later in the forecast period preclude

Critical probabilities past Day 5.



...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...

Strong mid-level flow pivoting around the upper cutoff low is

expected to overspread New Mexico Day 3/Friday, where a deep and dry

boundary layer is expected to be in place. Strong downslope flow

will encourage critically dry/breezy conditions across much of New

Mexico into the Trans Pecos region in southwest Texas. However,

guidance consensus shows the best overlap of critically dry/breezy

surface conditions over central New Mexico, in closer proximity to

the stronger winds aloft. Given sufficiently drying fuels in the

lower terrain areas, 70% Critical probabilities have been

introduced.



The upper low and associated surface low are expected to slowly

translate eastward Day 4/Saturday, with a sharpening dryline poised

to develop and advance eastward across western Texas. Thunderstorms

are expected to develop ahead of the dryline given a moist, buoyant

airmass (please see the Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook for more

details on the severe threat). It is possible that critically dry

and breezy conditions may advance farther east towards central TX,

but accumulating precipitation and dryline placement differences

among guidance members precludes eastward probability expansions at

this time. However, guidance shows substantial agreement in very

dry, strong westerly surface flow accompanying the post-dryline

environment across portions of eastern New Mexico into far western

Texas, with 70% Critical probabilities added. 



By Day 5/Sunday, the upper cutoff low and a surface low are expected

to become roughly stacked across the Plains states, promoting

strong, deep layer west-northwesterly flow across the southern

Plains. The trajectory of this deep-layer flow field is expected to

transport a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across much of eastern

New Mexico into western, central, and north-central Texas. 40/70%

Critical probabilities have been maintained/added where guidance

suggests that critical winds/RH will most likely overlap dry fuels

undisturbed by Day 4 precipitation. Similar to Saturday,

considerable eastward expansion of the Day 5 40/70% probabilities is

possible when precipitation impact on finer fuels can be better

ascertained, and if fuels appear receptive to wildfire spread. 



...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday...

Surface low development is possible across the southern High Plains

within the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period, with dry and breezy

conditions likely somewhere in New Mexico to West Texas. However,

medium range guidance varies considerably in terms of the placement

of the most favorable overlapping surface winds/RH. Given the

overall favorable setup for dry and breezy conditions across the

southwest into southern High Plains, Critical probabilities will

likely be added in future outlooks as forecast details can be better

resolved.



..Squitieri.. 03/10/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$