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FNUS21 KWNS 110647

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1247 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

A broad longwave upper-level trough remains largely in place across

the West Coast with a belt of stronger flow extending from northern

Baja California into the southern High Plains and portions of the

Midwest. This pattern is expected to hold through the day today, and

the persistent nearly zonal flow over the southern Rockies, along

with weak mid/upper-level diffluence, will help support modest

surface pressure falls over central/eastern New Mexico today. The

low-level mass response coupled with antecedent dry conditions will

support another day of fire weather concerns. 



...New Mexico...

The forecast remains on track with widespread elevated to critical

fire weather conditions likely across New Mexico and adjacent areas

of southeast AZ, west TX, and far southeast CO later today. The main

change compared to previous outlooks was a reduction in the risk

area across west TX (where modest moisture return is ongoing) and

the OK/TX Panhandles where cooler post-frontal air will limit RH

reductions this afternoon. 



To the west, recent observations across NM show dewpoint values in

the single digits to low teens, which will support another day of

widespread RH values in the 5-10% range west of the surface

trough/stalled cold front. Modest surface pressure falls will limit

the spatial extent of windy conditions compared to Wednesday, but

sustained 15-25 mph winds appear likely across the risk area per

recent ensemble guidance. A corridor of stronger mid-level flow

should exist from southwest to central NM, and given deep afternoon

boundary-layer mixing and terrain enhancements, will support wind

gusts between 30-40 mph. Fuels across eastern and southern portions

of NM remain receptive after several days of dry and windy

conditions. Further north, fuels within the higher elevations are

only modestly receptive, but recent reports suggest low-elevation

fuels are receptive and will support a fire weather concern. 



...Mid-Atlantic...

Dry conditions persist across the western Carolinas and into the

Mid-Atlantic region after relative humidity values fell into the

teens for several locations yesterday. Recent fuel analyses suggest

that 10/100-hour fuel moisture values have fallen to near 5 and 10%,

respectively. Although winds have become more southerly with the

eastward translation of a surface high, moisture return into the

region will be minimal today based on upstream dewpoints across the

western Carolinas in the low to mid 30s. Meager moisture return

coupled with diurnal heating should yield RH values in the 20-30%

range for today. The approach of a surface trough/cold front from

the west will augment pressure-gradient winds this afternoon. Winds

between 10-15 mph appear most likely and will support elevated fire

weather conditions for most locations in the risk area. Frequent

wind gusts near 20 mph are possible and may support localized/brief

critical conditions.



..Moore.. 03/11/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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