####018002657####
FNUS28 KWNS 152153

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0451 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026



Valid 171200Z - 231200Z



Quasi-zonal flow will prevail across a large portion of the eastern

US beginning Day 3/Sunday. Concurrently, a pronounced mid-level

trough is forecast to dig through the Intermountain West and lift

northeast across the Plains through the week. This evolution will

establish a prolonged period of Critical fire weather potential

across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Medium-range

forecast guidance indicates the synoptic pattern will deamplify by

late next week, introducing lower confidence in fire weather threats

as a cooler airmass settles over much of the CONUS. By the following

weekend, surface temperatures begin to rebound back above normal

over the far western CONUS.



...Southwest/Southern Plains...

From Day 3/Sunday through Day 4/Monday, the previously mentioned

robust mid-level trough will drive a multi-day stretch of what will

likely become Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions spanning

the Southwest into the adjacent southern Plains. Warm temperatures

and dry antecedent conditions, driven by recent upper-level ridging,

support cured fuels and have primed the region for ignitions.

West-southwesterly surface winds are progged to sustain at 20-30

mph, overlapping with minimum relative humidity values falling into

the single digits to low teens for prolonged afternoon periods.

Forecast guidance continues to highlight poor overnight moisture

recovery, with RH values largely remaining below 30% through the

entire Day 2/Saturday through Day 4/Monday period. This will extend

active burn windows well into the overnight hours. By Day 5/Tuesday,

lingering stronger-than-typical daytime winds will contribute to

another day of potential fire weather concerns over the region,

albeit less intense than on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday.



...California...

On Day 4/Monday, tightening surface gradient flow supported by the

jet stream overhead behind the deepening Great Basin trough will

produce strong and dry northerly surface winds (sustained at 15-20

mph) across the CA Central Valley. When paired with afternoon

humidity dropping into the teens, receptive fine fuels, and an

unseasonably warm/dry airmass over the preceding days, the threat

for rapid fire spread remains evident. Therefore, 40% probabilities

have been retained to highlight this fire weather risk.



..Stearns.. 05/15/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000712####
FNUS38 KWNS 152153

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026



VALID TIME 171200Z - 231200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     35370562 36230441 37100339 37600229 37680151 37310118

       36330121 35330119 34360104 33540144 33070249 32760379

       32450522 32010648 31590667 31570769 31250815 31220912

       32000941 32770938 33300889 33800827 34640823 35080762

       35110644 35370562

D4     35610404 36150312 36910203 37050071 36960007 35849976

       34499999 33280107 31680414 31500508 31830585 32410591

       33310540 34610482 35610404

&&