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FNUS21 KWNS 141645

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1144 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026



Valid 141700Z - 151200Z



...Morning Update...

The forecast remains on track. 12z soundings from VEF and PHX

sampled above 90th percentile climatology PWATs, in line with

GOES-derived total PWAT portraying a gradient of 1-1.5" or greater

along/south of the Arizona Central Highlands. Mid-level water vapor

depicts moisture surging northward from the Baja and Sonora regions,

with some thundershowers already occurring over south-central

Arizona. Occasional lightning strikes will pose a concern for new

fire starts where dry fuels exist across the Great Basin and Four

Corners. As with yesterday, erratic gusts of up to 35 mph are

possible with thunderstorm outflows, exacerbating any new/ongoing

fires (such as the Bear Fire in western New Mexico).



Across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper

Peninsula, sustained northerly winds of 10-15 mph will combine with

25-35% RH for a few hours this afternoon. Recent rainfall, sparse

fuels, and limited duration of fire weather conditions preclude the

introduction of broader Elevated highlights. However, localized fire

concerns may emerge where pockets of dry fuels exist.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/



...Synopsis...

Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region

into the Great Basin this afternoon along the northern periphery of

a moisture plume originating from Baja. Precipitable water content

of 0.5-0.75 inches, deeply-mixed inverted-V boundary layer profiles,

and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 15-20 kts will all contribute to

minimal downdraft precipitation efficiency with any storms that

develop. With ERC fuel guidance showing widespread 80th-95th annual

percentiles, lightning ignitions and erratic downdraft winds will

pose fire-weather concerns. While the transition from dry-to-wet

thunderstorms may occur further south of the current outlook area,

some trimming was done to exclude areas that received prior-day

wetting rainfall.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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