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FNUS21 KWNS 121655

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1054 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021



Valid 121700Z - 131200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN

NEW MEXICO...



Some changes have been made to the ongoing critical/elevated areas

in NM. The cooler air and cloud cover is likely to remain entrenched

across northeast NM. Farther south into the Trans-Pecos, moisture

return continues to occur. Though strong westerly wind aloft will

mix the dryline east this afternoon, most location along and to the

east of the NM/TX border may only see briefly elevated conditions.



For southern New England, surface observations in parts of MA/CT

have RH values in the low 20s to upper teens. Though these

conditions may persist into the afternoon, fuels remain relatively

moist. Dry and windy conditions are also probable ahead of a

secondary cold front moving across PA/NJ by late afternoon. Winds

may reach 15 mph for a couple of hours in central/eastern PA. Fuels

are drier in these locations and will better support locally

elevated conditions as compared to New England.



..Wendt.. 03/12/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021/



...Synopsis...

A positively tilted mid-level trough across the southern Great Basin

will deepen and become negatively tiled through the next 24 hours as

it moves east toward the Four Corners. At 500 mb a 70-80 kt

cyclonically curved jet will intensify to near 100 kts on the

southeastern flank of the trough. To the east, a low amplitude

trough will drive mid-level northwesterly flow across the

Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, broad lee cyclogenesis will gradually

take place across eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado with

a dryline trailing south across the southern High Plains. Critical

fire weather conditions are expected across portions of New Mexico

and west Texas.



...New Mexico...

The lee low across New Mexico and Colorado will deepen, slowly at

first, through the day in response to height falls ahead of the

approaching trough. Boundary-layer flow is forecast to increase to

20-30 mph through the day under the intensifying mid-level jet.

Widespread surface humidity of 5-15% will be supportive of critical

fire weather conditions across a broad swath of central and eastern

New Mexico. Humidity values will increase with eastward extent in

response to increasingly moist return flow across west Texas.

Despite the increase in moisture, gusty winds and plentiful fine

fuels will likely support elevated fire weather potential across

eastern New Mexico and far west Texas through the afternoon. 



...Mid-Atlantic...

Dry northwesterly surface flow around 15 mph and humidity values of

25-30% are forecast to develop behind a cold front across portions

of Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic through tomorrow afternoon. The dry

boundary-layer and gusty winds may support locally elevated fire

weather conditions through the day. Considerable uncertainty from

cloud/shower activity will limit confidence in deeper diurnal mixing

and more widespread elevated fire weather potential. However,

locally elevated conditions may develop regionally given marginally

supportive fuels and relatively dry and windy conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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