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FNUS22 KWNS 081956

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...



Deterministic model guidance from ECMWF/GFS has trended up surface

wind speeds across far western Texas into southwest Texas. Other

model runs have kept sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph. Hi-res

ensemble HREF guidance indicates low probability (10-20 percent) of

winds speeds and relative humidity reaching Extremely Critical

thresholds. Given these trends, potential for locally Extremely

Critical conditions are possible within the D2 Critical. Trends will

be monitored but inclusion of an area is not needed at this time,

due to low probability and coverage potential.



See previous discussion below.



..Thornton.. 04/08/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/



...Synopsis...

A mid-level low will move across northern Mexico and the Southwest

and into Texas on Tuesday. South of this low, strong mid-level flow

will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across Far West Texas and

Southwest Texas. This will result in 20 to 25 mph sustained surface

winds and single digit relative humidity. Large fires are possible

in this region, and a cold front will bring a wind shift during the

evening which could lead to erratic fire behavior on any ongoing

fires.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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