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FNUS21 KWNS 130744

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0143 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST

TEXAS...



...Synopsis...

A deep upper low over the Four Corners will translate eastward today

supporting lee cyclogensis across the central High Plains.

Northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure will support cool

and dry conditions across much of the Northeast. Critical fire

weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High

Plains, with locally elevated fire weather potential possible across

New England.



...Southern High Plains...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to the west of a well

developed dryline forecast to stall across the central Texas

Panhandle. Surface flow will increase to 25-40 mph with higher gusts

owing to deep vertical mixing and a strong mid-level jet streak over

the Four Corners. The deep mixing and warm temperatures will support

RH in the single digits to low teens across much of eastern New

Mexico. Dry fuels in the presence of the well mixed/windy boundary

layer in regional model soundings suggests critical fire weather

conditions are very likely through the afternoon and evening hours. 





Across northeastern New Mexico, wrap-around moisture behind the

departing lee low will support the development of

showers/thunderstorms this morning through the early afternoon.

Precipitation that develops will limit the potential for fire

weather conditions this afternoon. However, rapid drying of the

boundary-layer and very strong surface winds behind the low may

support locally elevated fire weather conditions late this afternoon

and evening. 



...Northeast...

Behind a cold front, dry surface conditions are expected across New

England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic with surface RH of 20-30%.

Surface winds will likely remain below critical thresholds given

increasing high pressure across the Ohio valley. However, the

presence of dry fuels and very dry surface condition suggests

locally elevated/critical fire weather conditions may develop

despite weaker winds and cool temperatures.



..Lyons.. 03/13/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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