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FNUS22 KWNS 131959

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0158 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TRANS-PECOS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW

MEXICO...



Some modification to the ongoing critical area has been made. Given

less receptive fuels from the Big Bend eastward, the area has been

trimmed westward. Locally elevated conditions will be possible as

far east as the I-35 corridor in central Texas, however. Some

modifications to the elevated could become necessary based on

rainfall this afternoon and evening in parts of the Texas South

Plains.



For the Mid-Atlantic, given the trends in afternoon RH observations,

the elevated has been expanded to the south. The very dry conditions

the last two days should increase the amount of available fine

fuels. Locally critical conditions are possible, but cooler

temperatures still appear as though they will limit the duration of

critically low RH.



..Wendt.. 03/13/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021/



...Synopsis...

The upper low ejecting eastward across the southern Plains will

stall and become vertically stacked as it slowly begins to fill

through tomorrow evening. Strong mid-level flow along the southern

half of the low will linger above the Southwest and southern High

Plains supporting dry and windy conditions. A shortwave trough

embedded within very strong northwesterly flow over the Northeast

will bringing cool, dry, and windy conditions to the Mid Atlantic.



...Southwest Texas southeast New Mexico...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected through day as strong

westerly flow and dry surface conditions overlap with critically dry

fuels. Model soundings show a deep well-mixed boundary layer with

surface RH of 10-15% in the wake of a deep lee cyclone. A 60-80 kt

mid-level jet streak above the region will bolster surface winds to

25-40 mph with higher gusts through the afternoon and evening.

Despite some light precipitation over the past few days, critical

fire weather conditions will likely develop, given plentiful dry

fuels and the magnitude of dry/windy conditions.



...Northeast...

A post frontal airmass across the Mid-Atlantic may support elevated

to near critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon and

evening. A northwesterly mid-level jet will enhance boundary-layer

mixing in a cold advection regime. Surface winds of 15-25 mph are

likely through the afternoon. With dry northwesterly flow, surface

RH of 30-35% is forecast to develop. While fuels are not overly

supportive and cooling temperatures may hamper the overall threat

somewhat, the degree of dry and windy conditions will support

elevated fire weather potential.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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