####018002729####
FNUS28 KWNS 142119

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0417 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021



Valid 161200Z - 221200Z



A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move through the

Southwest on Tuesday. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen

within the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This trough will

continue into the Mid-South through Thursday/Friday. In the West, an

upper-level ridge will amplify and shift into the Plains by the

weekend. This particular pattern would indicate that fire weather

concerns will be limited from midweek into the weekend. Thereafter,

a broad trough is currently forecast to move into the intermountain

region by early next week. Fire weather concerns for the southern

High Plains may increase late in the period, but timing and

magnitude are still quite uncertain.



...Southern High Plains...

Strong mid-level winds will coincide with a strong surface pressure

gradient on Tuesday afternoon. Guidance maintains that a broad area

of RH around 10% is possible with less than 15% common elsewhere.

Sustained winds from 30-40 mph are probable, especially beneath the

strong mid-level jet. A fairly expansive area of critical fire

weather is forecast. Given the strong winds and potential for single

digit RH, extremely critical meteorological conditions could occur

on a local/brief basis at very least. The area of primary concern

for these conditions will be the Trans-Pecos northward along the

TX/NM border. The northern and eastern extent of the risk is still

somewhat in question as the position of boundaries in guidance still

differs as well as the decreased fuel receptiveness in those areas.



As mentioned, fire weather risks will likely return as the next

trough moves through the region. Current forecast guidance suggests

this could occur as early as next Sunday and into the next week.

Fuels will have more time to cure underneath the ridge this coming

week. With the timing of the ridge still uncertain, no risk areas

will be highlighted.



...Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley/Central Texas...

A cold front will move through Texas Wednesday morning. In its wake,

dry and windy conditions will likely occur across much of western

and central Texas. With precipitation possible along the front as

well as uncertainty as to how low RH will fall, no areas will be

highlighted. The highest confidence in at least elevated fire

weather risk is from the Big Bend into the Rio Grande Valley which

are most likely to stay dry and be quite warm behind the front.



..Wendt.. 03/14/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000523####
FNUS38 KWNS 142119

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0417 PM CDT SUN MAR 14 2021



VALID TIME 161200Z - 221200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     29800257 29090289 28870311 29010355 29260401 29590454

       29680464 30160478 30330484 30620503 30800532 30900550

       31090574 31350607 31570594 32070517 33130434 33900391

       34780334 34970181 34730116 33190135 31800162 29800257

&&