####018002108#### FNUS21 KWNS 111640 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$