####018001725####
FNUS21 KWNS 160648

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...



...Synopsis...

Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains

this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire

weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from

central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.



...New Mexico and far west Texas...

Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative

humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New

Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this

region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry

conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.



...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...

As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will

overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the

middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across

the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this

outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to

northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to

dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence

has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle

Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added

with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on

Sunday.



..Thornton.. 03/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018001105####
FNUS22 KWNS 160649

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...Synopsis...

A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday

across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the

northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across

the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will

extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will

promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west

TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%

will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A

corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible

within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of

critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low

combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.



..Thornton.. 03/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$