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FNUS73 KUNR 252313

FWSUNR



Spot Forecast for Schenk Canyon Rx...USFS

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

513 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on April 26. 

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather

Service.



.DISCUSSION...Mainly dry weather is expected tonight, though there could 

be another shower or thunderstorm passing by the area early this evening. 

North winds will be gusty through early evening as a cold front passes, 

but diminish overnight. Humidity recovery will be excellent tonight. Chances

for showers will increase Friday morning and persist into Saturday. A

thunderstorm is also possible. Rainfall amounts are expected to be 

relatively light Friday and Friday night, a few hundredths to possibly two 

tenths of an inch. Northerly winds will increase Friday morning, with gusts 

to around 25 mph late in the morning through the evening. Any additional 

rainfall on Saturday is expected to be light as well.    



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers and 

                    thunderstorms possible before 900 PM. 

Min temperature.....Around 46. 

Max humidity........88-93 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through

                    900 PM, then decreasing to 6 to 12 mph overnight. 

CWR.................10 percent. 

LAL.................1. 

Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 

                    dominated fire growth. 

Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl. 

Transport winds.....North around 10 mph. 

Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 



.FRIDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain 

                    showers in the morning, then rain showers likely and 

                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the 

                    afternoon.  

Max temperature.....Around 59. 

Min humidity........47-51 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 

                    25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and 

                    erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms in the 

                    afternoon. 

CWR.................40 percent. 

LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2. 

Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 

                    dominated fire growth. 

Mixing height.......4600 to 5100 ft agl. 

Transport winds.....North around 30 mph increasing to around 40 mph 

                    in the afternoon. 

Smoke dispersal.....Very good to excellent. 



.FRIDAY NIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers 

                    and evening thunderstorms.  

Min temperature.....Around 42. 

Max humidity........87-92 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in 

                    the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected 

                    near thunderstorms in the evening. 

CWR.................20 percent. 

LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1. 

Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 

                    dominated fire growth. 

Mixing height.......1300 to 1800 ft agl. 

Transport winds.....North around 30 mph decreasing to around 15 mph 

                    overnight. 

Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 



.SATURDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers 

                    likely. 

Max temperature.....Around 49. 

Min humidity........62-66 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........North-northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts 

                    to around 20 mph. 

CWR.................30 percent. 

LAL.................1. 

Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 

                    dominated fire growth. 

Mixing height.......3400 to 3900 ft agl. 

Transport winds.....Northeast around 25 mph. 

Smoke dispersal.....Good. 



$$

Forecaster...ST

Requested by...Josh Behlings

Type of request...PRESCRIBED

.TAG 2412505.0/UNR

.DELDT 04/25/24

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL joshua.behlings@usda.gov