####018010616#### FNUS73 KJKL 172159 FWSJKL Spot Forecast for Seminary Branch...USFS National Weather Service Jackson KY 559 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 EDT on April 17. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Well above normal temperatures continue for the Seminary Branch wildfire through Thursday. Humidity should bottom out near 30 percent on Thursday afternoon. However, a more potent low pressure system will track into the OH Valley Thursday evening and Thursday night, sending a cold front across the area and bringing much higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front will move east of eastern KY on Friday with rain chances ending in the afternoon. Rainfall at the wildfire location is expected to be in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range from Thursday evening to Friday afternoon. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Patchy fog overnight. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........Around 96 percent. Dewpoint............Around 58. Max apparent temp...Around 73. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 6 to 13 mph. Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 7 to 14 mph. Mixing height.......Decreasing to 400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph decreasing to 6 to 12 mph. Vent Rate...........Good (90700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft). LVORI...............1 early, 7 late. ADI.................99 early, decreasing to 2 to 6. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........37 35 37 38 40 42 40 39 38 40 41 43 Weather cov..... PTY PTY PTY PTY Weather type.... FOG FOG FOG FOG Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............73 72 70 68 67 66 64 63 62 61 60 60 Dewpoint........57 57 57 57 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 RH..............57 59 63 68 73 75 81 87 90 93 96 96 Aparnt tmp (F)..73 72 70 68 67 66 64 63 62 61 60 60 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..13 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.21 20 16 13 12 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 Ridge wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Ridge wind spd..14 13 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W Transp wind spd.24 18 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 ADI.............99 16 8 7 7 10 7 4 4 3 5 4 Haines index....4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..91 39 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 Ventrate Cat....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 84. Min humidity........around 31 percent. Dewpoint............Around 57 decreasing to around 53. Max apparent temp...Around 82. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to south 5 to 7 mph. Ridgetop wind.......Southwest to south 6 to 8 mph. Mixing height.......Max 6500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West to southwest 2 to 8 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (1900 knot-ft) increasing to fair (45800 knot-ft). LVORI...............8 early, 1 late. ADI.................2 early peaking at 58 in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........38 27 23 19 17 15 Weather cov.....PATCHY PATCHY Weather type....FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............60 60 65 73 80 83 Dewpoint........59 59 59 58 56 53 RH..............96 96 81 59 44 36 Aparnt tmp (F)..60 60 65 73 80 82 20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 S 7 20 ft wind gust.7 7 8 9 9 10 Ridgetop wind...SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 S 8 Mix hgt (ft)....500 800 1800 2700 4600 6300 Transport wind..W 5 W 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 LVORI...........8 8 4 2 1 1 ADI.............2 3 7 17 38 56 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 2 4 11 28 44 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 2400, then 2 to 3. Min temperature.....Around 62. Max humidity........Around 93 percent. Dewpoint............Around 54 increasing to around 57. Max apparent temp...Around 82. Wind (20 ft)........South 5-8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds possible near any thunderstorms. Ridgetop wind.......South around 8 mph. Mixing height.......Decreasing to 400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 13 mph. Vent Rate...........Marginal (32700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft). LVORI...............1 to 3. ADI.................47 early in the evening decreasing to 4 to 8. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........11 6 28 73 Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 40 LAL.............1 1 2 3 Temp............83 74 68 65 Dewpoint........52 53 54 55 RH..............34 48 61 70 Aparnt tmp (F)..82 74 68 65 20 FT wind......S 7G10 S 7G9 S 7G9 S 7G9 Ridgetop wind...S 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 Mix hgt (ft)....5000 400 500 500 Transport wind..S 8 S 8 S 12 SW 12 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 ADI.............47 4 5 8 Haines index....5 5 5 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..33 3 5 5 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................3 until 1700, then 1. Max temperature.....Around 72. Min humidity........Around 57 percent. Dewpoint............Around 60 decreasing to around 56 late. Max apparent temp...Around 72. Wind (20 ft)........South to west 5 to 8 mph, becoming northwest around 7 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds possible near any thunderstorms. Ridgetop wind.......South to west 6 to , becoming northwest around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......Max 2200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South to west 9 to 13 mph, becoming northwest 11 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Vent Rate...........Poor (4000 knot-ft) increasing to poor (18500 knot-ft) to poor (23800 knot-ft) late in the morning and in the afternoon. LVORI...............4. ADI.................6 to 34. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........75 76 72 Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 30 LAL.............3 3 3 Temp............62 67 72 Dewpoint........58 62 61 RH..............87 84 68 Aparnt tmp (F)..62 67 72 20 FT wind......S 6G8 W 7G13 NW 8G15 Ridgetop wind...S 7 W 8 NW 9 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1800 2200 Transport wind..SW 9 W 13 NW 12 LVORI...........5 4 3 ADI.............6 27 30 Haines index....3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 19 22 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...JP Requested by...Michael Trent Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2411203.2/JKL .DELDT 04/17/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL kykic@firenet.gov,eddie.walden@usda.gov