####018005732#### FNUS74 KEPZ 231714 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Sixteen Springs RX...USFS National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1114 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on April 23. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... ELEVATED fire weather conditions can be expected for today with RH being the main driver for any fire weather concerns. Temperatures will be 2 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday with Min RH values at or below 15 percent areawide. Generally terrain drive and drainage regime-like flows during the morning and evening hours with west winds of 10-20 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours. Deep mixing will lead to Excellent smoke ventilation rates during the afternoon. Similar conditions on Wednesday with slightly higher winds. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 78. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 12 mph. Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 22 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (178100 knot-ft). Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........3 3 3 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............72 77 78 RH..............15 11 10 20 ft wind......W 10 W 12 W 12 20 ft wind gust.22 22 23 Mix hgt (ft)....9000 9900 9900 Transport wind..W 22 W 22 W 22 Haines index....5 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..178 188 188 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT EXNT .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 49. Max humidity........31 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in the evening. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 19 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (10400 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........3 3 5 6 6 18 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............75 65 59 56 53 51 RH..............11 16 20 22 26 28 20 ft wind......W 10 W 10 W 9 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 20 ft wind gust.23 23 20 18 18 17 Mix hgt (ft)....7600 7600 600 600 600 600 Transport wind..W 20 W 20 W 21 SW21 SW 19 SW 19 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..153 153 11 11 10 10 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 21 mph shifting to the southwest around 12 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph increasing to around 23 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38300 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (171900 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........23 24 48 63 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............49 60 72 77 RH..............31 26 16 11 20 FT wind......W 6G12 SW 8G21 S 12G23 SW 12G24 Mix hgt (ft)....3500 3500 9100 9200 Transport wind..W 12 W 12 SW 20 SW 23 Haines index....3 3 3 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 38 172 180 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT $$ Forecaster...BARHAM Requested by...Dana Chinander Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412009.0/EPZ .DELDT 04/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov