####018006588#### FNUS71 KAKQ 021323 FWSAKQ Spot Forecast for Dowdy RX Burn...Department of Forestry National Weather Service Wakefield VA 923 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service at 757-899-5734. .DISCUSSION... Dry and warm weather will prevail today as high pressure remains centred across the region. Maximum temperatures will top out in the upper 80s with minimum relative humidty values dropping to around 34 percent. Despite mixing heights increasing to 6500-7000 feet today, transport winds will be generally 5 mph or less for the entire day. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday, with rain chances increasing Saturday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........34 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 2 mph shifting to the southwest 2 to 5 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (27600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............2. ADI.................9 to 38. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........6 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............76 80 83 85 86 87 87 87 RH..............52 45 40 37 35 34 34 34 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S 20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 4.5 5.2 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 Transp wind dir.N N N W SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.2 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 ADI.............9 13 14 15 18 25 33 38 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 9 10 11 13 18 24 28 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........84 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............4. ADI.................1 to 25. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........3 2 2 4 6 8 11 13 16 18 21 23 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............86 82 78 75 71 69 67 67 66 64 62 61 RH..............36 43 50 54 61 63 68 70 73 78 81 84 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S SW SW W W W 20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW S S S SW SW SW SW W Transp wind spd.5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LVORI...........2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 ADI.............25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 85. Min humidity........43 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest around 2 mph becoming 1 to 2 mph early in the morning, then shifting to the west around 1 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the south early in the afternoon shifting to the southeast 9 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (34100 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................1 to 40. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........22 19 26 36 50 56 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 Temp............61 65 75 80 84 83 RH..............84 75 58 51 43 46 20 ft wind......W 3 N 4 NE 4 E 4 E 5 SE 6 20 ft wind gust.5 6 6 6 8 11 Mix hgt (ft)....500 600 1600 3300 5800 4100 Transport wind..W 2 N 2 NW 1 W 1 SE 3 SE 9 LVORI...........5 4 3 2 2 1 ADI.............1 2 2 5 26 34 Haines index....4 3 4 4 4 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 3 18 33 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...DUTTER Requested by...Cameron Lipscomb Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413020.0/AKQ .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Cameron.Lipscomb@dof.virginia.gov