####018006476#### FNUS73 KAPX 260936 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Joes Opening Unit 4...MIDNR National Weather Service Gaylord MI 536 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 26. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Elevated fire danger will be in place across northern lower Michigan this afternoon into early this evening. Southeast winds will increase through the morning into this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph are expected by late morning/afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph at times today. RHs are expected to mix down into critical thresholds (20-25%) for a time this afternoon, but the window for these critical RHs will be relatively short -- most likely between 2 PM and 6 PM. RHs may mix down into the upper teens for a brief period of time this afternoon. Near-critical RHs (25- 30%) will be expected for a few hours afterwards into this evening as moisture gradually increases across the area. Rain-free weather is anticipated into this evening with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning tonight. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Max temperature.....Around 62. Min humidity........18 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 22 mph. Mixing height.......3500-4200 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Good (677.0). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........2 2 2 2 7 9 27 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............52 55 57 59 60 61 61 RH..............39 32 27 23 20 18 20 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..9 12 12 12 13 13 13 20 ft wind gust.18 20 20 20 22 22 22 Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.8 Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5 5 Transp wind dir.S SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.20 21 21 21 21 22 22 Vrate kt-ft.....677 792 829 841 866 905 838 Ventrate Cat....GD GD GD GD GD GD GD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain showers late in the evening. Scattered rain showers overnight, then rain showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Min temperature.....Around 48. Max humidity........88 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to around 24 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 22 mph. Mixing height.......3200-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1100 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Good (702.0) decreasing to poor (136.0) early in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........21 42 45 56 63 73 82 88 93 94 93 92 Weather cov..... ISO ISO SCT SCT DEF DEF DEF DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO ISO Temp............59 58 54 52 50 49 49 49 50 50 49 51 RH..............25 28 38 44 48 52 56 63 71 77 86 86 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..13 13 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S Transp wind spd.22 22 17 16 17 18 18 18 18 20 21 21 Vrate kt-ft.....829 702 190 146 136 154 147 164 155 166 185 180 Ventrate Cat....GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers early in the morning. Rain showers likely early in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........58 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 14 to 16 mph with gusts to around 31 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Transport winds.....South 20 to 29 mph. Mixing height.......900-2800 ft AGL increasing to 2900 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (183.0-638.0) increasing to good (706.0) late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........92 84 77 71 66 63 Weather cov.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC Temp............52 55 62 67 71 74 RH..............86 87 82 75 68 61 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S SW 20 ft wind spd..12 12 17 20 20 20 20 ft wind gust.26 26 29 31 31 31 Mix hgt (ft)....1000 1000 1500 2100 2300 2800 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 Transport wind..S 21 S 20 S 24 SW 29 SW 28 SW 28 Vrate kt-ft.....207 193 357 592 638 777 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...DJC Requested by...Jennifer Hansen Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412516.0/APX .DELDT 04/26/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL hansenj4@michigan.gov