####018007092#### FNUS73 KMQT 241711 FWSMQT Spot Forecast for Low Rollaways...MI DNR National Weather Service Marquette MI 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 25. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Dry weather continues Thursday through Friday over Low Rollaways. With the Lake Michigan lake breeze coming in by the early afternoon hours, max temperatures should be limited to the low 50s with winds being light from the south on Thursday. However, due to high pressure exiting Lake Superior for the Lower Great Lakes Thursday, RHs will be very dry, getting down into the 20 percents by early in the afternoon. Once the lake breeze moves through, the air may moisten a little. Moving into Thursday night, the light southerly winds will help to bring some moisture back across the area; thus, I'm thinking we will see RHs recover into the upper 80s before dawn Friday morning. While warmer temperatures and stronger winds are expected Friday, conditions look to be a little more moist as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains; expect min RHs to only get down into the mid 30 percents Friday afternoon. .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Temperature.........38 at ignition...Max 51. RH..................38 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent. Dewpoint............14. 33-foot winds.......Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise South winds 6 to 9 mph. 20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph. Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1900-3600 ft AGL. Ventilation index...Poor (116) at ignition. Max...fair (282.0). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. Ceiling (kft).......25. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............38 43 45 47 49 49 49 50 Dewpoint........15 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 RH..............38 28 27 26 25 25 25 25 33 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S 33 ft wind spd..7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S 20 ft wind spd..6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 Wind gust.......7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.2 Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 VIndx kt-ft/100.12 17 19 21 25 25 28 26 Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Temperature.........Min 31. RH..................Max 88 percent. Dewpoint............19 increasing to 28. 33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds up to 6 mph. Mixing height.......1100-2600 ft AGL decreasing to 200-600 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (22.0-230.0). Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. Ceiling (kft).......25 in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........2 4 5 7 10 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............48 46 44 40 37 34 33 33 32 32 32 33 Dewpoint........18 21 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 RH..............30 37 44 51 60 70 74 79 83 85 86 88 33 ft wind dir..S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 33 ft wind spd..8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 20 ft wind dir..S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 Wind gust.......8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 VIndx kt-ft/100.23 16 11 7 4 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Temperature.........Max 51. RH..................Min 44 percent. Dewpoint............30. 33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 6 to 15 mph. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL increasing to 1200-2700 ft AGL in the afternoon. Ventilation index...Poor to good (36.0-446.0) increasing to fair to excellent (266.0-642.0) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches. Ceiling (kft).......MISSING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........8 16 46 46 57 61 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............34 36 42 47 50 50 Dewpoint........30 31 31 30 29 30 RH..............86 81 65 53 44 45 33 ft wind......SE 8 SE 8 SE 13 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 6 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 SE 12 Wind gust.......11 11 18 18 18 18 Mix hgt (ft)....200 300 800 1900 2700 1800 Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 4 VIndx kt-ft/100.4 6 20 45 64 41 Ceiling (kft)... $$ Forecaster...TAP Requested by...Rob Shields Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412304.0/MQT .DELDT 04/24/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL shieldsr1@michigan.gov