####018004734#### FNUS73 KMPX 061240 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Soo Line East...US FWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 740 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... For Soo Line East burn, Breezy southeast winds develop by late morning, with occasional winds gusts over 35 mph possible. Increasing humidity with the southeast flow will keep RH values fairly high however, with min values staying at or above 40%. Sustained winds will stay in the 20 to 25 mph range with transport 25 to 30 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 70. RH..................67 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 16 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good /40900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /116000 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 29 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM Sky cover.......PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............58 62 65 67 68 70 70 70 69 68 64 63 RH..............67 56 48 45 42 39 41 42 44 43 48 48 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..16 17 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 FT wind gust.24 26 28 28 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.22 26 26 26 28 28 29 28 29 23 22 22 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms overnight. Temperature.........Min 53. RH..................Max 95 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 20 to 23 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (93400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to fair (16100 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 29 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 63. RH..................Min 61 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 20 mph shifting to the south 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (65900 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 24 mph shifting to the southwest 14 to 16 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Hewett Requested by...Robert Bengson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413246.0/MPX .DELDT 05/06/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov