####018006634#### FNUS71 KLWX 112358 FWSLWX Spot Forecast for Key Bridge Response...USCG National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 758 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 EDT on May 11. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... The broad area of light to moderate rain showers discussed in the previous forecast package has now moved into the Patapsco River area. It is a quick moving system which could bring brief gusts up to around 20 knots. Any threat for lightning has been extremely isolated in nature. The latest lightning detection tools show very low probabilities for such an occurrence in the next hour or two. Small Craft Advisories go into effect at 2000 this evening, persisting through 0400 Sunday. Although current gusts are around 10 knots, expect these to increase behind the shield of rain showers. Forecast gusts go up to around 20 knots, before decreasing ahead of sunrise. Nighttime ceilings will remain low, roughly MVFR with cloud bases around 2,000 feet. This could briefly lower further depending on if showers from western Maryland are able to hold on while traveling across the Mid- Atlantic region. For Sunday, an additional disturbance in the upper atmosphere could impact northeastern Maryland which includes the Key Bridge Incident. Scattered showers may break out by around lunch time, with the threat persisting through about 1800. Isolated lightning is not out of the question within the heavier showers. Northwest winds during the morning will shift to north/northeast for the second half of the day. An eventual shift to east winds could lead to another round of low ceilings on Sunday night. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous rain showers through the night. Isolated thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. Min temperature.....Around 53. Max humidity........93 percent. Surface winds (kts).South winds 10 to 13 knots, gusts to 20 knots. Wave height.........1 foot. CEILING (KFT).......4.3 decreasing to 1.6. Visibility..........8 decreasing to 5 late in the evening, then increasing to 8 overnight. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........87 86 85 84 86 88 90 87 83 80 Weather cov.....NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 50 40 50 70 60 60 60 40 Temp............61 59 58 57 56 56 55 54 54 54 RH..............60 69 75 77 80 80 86 90 90 93 SFC wnd dir.....S S S S S S S S S S SFC wnd spd kts.12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 SFC wnd gst.....19 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 14 Wave height (ft)1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ceiling (kft)...5.2 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 Visibility (sm).8 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered rain showers in the morning, then numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the morning. Scattered rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. Max temperature.....Around 64. Min humidity........65 percent. Surface winds (kts).Southwest winds 8 to 10 knots shifting to the northeast late in the afternoon. Wave height.........1 foot. CEILING (KFT).......1.6 increasing to 2.7 early in the morning, then increasing to 4.8 early in the morning decreasing to 4.3 in the afternoon. Visibility..........9. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........73 66 59 60 62 63 65 66 68 63 57 52 Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 50 50 50 30 Temp............54 54 55 57 58 59 59 60 61 60 62 62 RH..............93 93 90 80 77 72 72 69 65 69 65 67 SFC wnd dir.....SW W W W NW NW NW N N N NE NE SFC wnd spd kts.9 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 SFC wnd gst.....13 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 Wave height (ft)1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ceiling (kft)...1.6 2.7 5.4 5.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered rain showers early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. Min temperature.....Around 53. Max humidity........93 percent. Surface winds (kts).East winds around 8 knots shifting to the southeast around 7 knots late in the evening. Wave height.........1 foot. CEILING (KFT).......5.1 decreasing to 1.2. Visibility..........9. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........47 38 28 28 38 47 Weather cov.....SCTTRD Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).30 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............62 62 58 56 55 53 RH..............65 67 80 86 86 93 SFC wind (kts)..NE 8 E 8 E 8 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SFC wnd gst .... 9 9 8 Wave height (ft)1 0 0 0 0 0 Ceiling (kft)...5.3 5.1 4.4 4.1 2.5 1.6 Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 9 9 $$ Forecaster...Rubin-Oster Requested by...Jackie Gonzalez Type of request...MARINE .TAG 2413415.0/LWX .DELDT 05/11/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nws-sterling-wxsupport@noaa.gov,Sitlkeybridgeresponse2024@gmail.com,jpg112122@gmail.com