####018009611#### FNUS72 KFFC 250853 FWSFFC Spot Forecast for 140...USFS National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 453 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 25. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Good morning! Warm and dry conditions are expected today at the burn site. Temperatures start off fairly mild this morning with current readings in the mid 50s. Temperatures will warm to near 60 around ignition time and top out in the low 80s later this afternoon. RH values around the time of ignition are forecast to be between 80-95%, but will lower to 40-50% between 11AM-12PM, and between 28-30% this afternoon (after 2PM). No Fire Danger Statement has been issued at this time but we will continue to monitor trends this morning considering how 10hr fuels faired yesterday afternoon. The wind forecast will be tricky as a weak frontal boundary will be moving south through the area and is expected to lift back north overnight. Light/calm winds this morning will largely be NNE or due north but may switch over to the NE/E by between 9-11AM before switching back to the NW/WNW this afternoon (after 1PM). Though give light forecast wind speeds (< 6MPH), I do suspect winds could be variable at any point late this morning into the early afternoon. Transport wind speeds will be little higher with values 4 to 8 MPH this morning before becoming light (< 5MPH or less) this afternoon. Tonight, winds will be light and will be out of the W. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 82. Min humidity........29 percent. Dewpoint............52 decreasing to 46 late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph late in the morning, then becoming light in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 3 to 6 mph shifting to the northeast 6 to 8 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the north 3 to 5 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the west around 3 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (26300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............5. ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 44 in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. CEILING (KFT).......25. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........7 0 0 1 2 4 6 7 15 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............59 67 72 76 78 80 81 81 81 Dewpoint........54 54 53 52 51 47 47 46 47 RH..............84 64 52 44 39 32 30 29 30 20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE N N NW NW 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT wind gust.7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 2.6 3.3 4.3 6.2 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 Transp wind dir.NE NE E NE N N NW W W Transp wind spd.6 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 3 LVORI...........4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............8 26 37 41 44 36 33 34 35 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 19 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). CWR.................10 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 57. Max humidity........82 percent. Dewpoint............47 increasing to 51 early in the evening. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the northeast early in the evening, then shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19900 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............3. ADI.................1 to 18. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 9.0. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........10 17 40 38 27 31 10 15 14 26 28 27 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............80 78 72 68 66 64 62 61 60 59 58 58 Dewpoint........48 47 53 52 52 52 51 50 50 50 50 50 RH..............32 33 52 57 61 65 67 67 70 71 74 75 20 FT wind dir..NW N NE E E E E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 20 FT wind gust.6 5 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Transp wind dir.NW N NE NE E E E E E E E E Transp wind spd.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 ADI.............18 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..20 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 12 9.0 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). CWR.................10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 81. Min humidity........46 percent. Dewpoint............51 increasing to 58 in the late morning and afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph. Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 13 to 18 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (63800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 64 in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. CEILING (KFT).......7.0 increasing to 8.0 early in the morning, then increasing to 9.0 late in the morning increasing to 10 late in the morning decreasing to 9.0 decreasing to 7.0 early in the afternoon decreasing to 6.0 decreasing to 5.0 late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........52 60 54 53 59 57 63 60 57 58 59 59 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............57 58 59 62 66 70 73 76 78 80 81 81 Dewpoint........50 51 53 56 58 59 59 60 60 59 58 58 RH..............77 76 80 82 76 69 62 56 53 49 46 46 20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E SE SE SE E E 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.8 9 9 10 12 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.5 4.1 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 Transp wind dir.E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.5 5 6 10 15 18 18 17 15 14 14 13 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............3 3 4 8 26 41 54 64 61 57 54 50 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 8 21 28 37 55 64 59 50 46 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD FR FR FR Ceiling (kft)...7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 10 10 9.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 $$ Forecaster...Wyatt Requested by...Amy Galetka Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412313.0/FFC .DELDT 04/24/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL amy.galetka@usda.gov ####018005673#### FNUS72 KTBW 250854 FWSTBW Spot Forecast for RX_CMR-5P...Sarasota County PRNR National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 454 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 25. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... High pressure remains over the region with warm and dry conditions. A few hours of critical RH values will be possible during the afternoons, however winds are expected to remain low enough to preclude any additional fire weather concerns. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........36 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west 10 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Dispersion index....5 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then increasing to 31 late in the morning increasing to 47 late in the morning increasing to 50 decreasing to 37 late in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........1 2 1 2 12 19 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............63 64 76 84 87 87 RH..............83 81 55 42 36 39 20 ft wind......E 5 E 5 SE 6 SE 7 SW 6 W 10 20 ft wind gust.8 8 10 9 8 12 Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 2600 6000 6900 6400 Transport wind..E 7 E 8 SE 10 E 8 E 7 SE 8 Dispersion idx..2 8 31 50 54 45 LVORI...........5 4 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 65. Max humidity........80 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast 5 to 6 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the east around 5 mph overnight. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 8 to 9 mph overnight. Dispersion index....26 decreasing to 3. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........13 8 9 7 4 1 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............83 78 74 70 68 66 RH..............45 55 64 70 71 73 20 ft wind......W 10 NW 8 NE 6 E 5 E 5 E 5 20 ft wind gust.12 12 10 9 8 10 Mix hgt (ft)....3200 700 400 400 400 400 Transport wind..W 9 W 10 N 8 NE 7 E 8 E 9 Dispersion idx..26 6 2 3 4 4 LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 90. Min humidity........34 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph. Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 9 to 16 mph. Dispersion index....6 increasing to 30 late in the morning, then increasing to 57 late in the morning increasing to 81 late in the morning increasing to 98 increasing to 112 late in the afternoon decreasing to 95. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........1 0 0 4 12 29 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............65 67 78 84 89 89 RH..............77 77 51 41 34 34 20 ft wind......E 5 E 6 SE 8 SE 9 SE 9 E 8 20 ft wind gust.10 10 12 15 16 15 Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 3200 5500 7200 7300 Transport wind..SE 9 SE 9 SE 14 E 16 E 15 E 13 Dispersion idx..2 9 57 98 114 109 LVORI...........4 4 1 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...Hurt Requested by...Meghan Meyer Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412368.0/TBW .DELDT 04/25/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL dcavanaugh@scgov.net,mmmeyer@scgov.net