####018008047#### FNUS74 KMAF 092344 FWSMAF Spot Forecast for Presidio New Start...Texas A&M Forest Service National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 644 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CDT on May 09. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Recovery overnight will be poor in the Presidio Valley. However, a cold front will move into the area around sunrise, bringing a little relief, and a little moisture along with it. Friday night, recovery will be excellent as moisture continues to advect into the area, along with a chance of thunderstorms. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 63. Max humidity........29 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph decreasing to 6 to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......12400 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL early in the evening. Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 7 to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM Sky cover.......CLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............98 89 83 76 72 66 RH..............6 10 11 13 16 22 20 FT wind dir..NW N NW NW NW N 20 FT wind spd..9 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT wind gust.14 Mix hgt (ft)....12400 500 500 500 500 500 Transp wind dir.W NW W NW W NW Transp wind spd.18 8 8 8 7 7 Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Max temperature.....Around 95. Min humidity........18 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 8 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......9100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east 9 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............64 71 86 93 RH..............23 28 32 23 20 FT wind dir..N NW E E 20 FT wind spd..6 6 8 13 20 FT wind gust. 14 Mix hgt (ft)....400 1200 4300 8100 Transp wind dir.NE E E SE Transp wind spd.7 7 9 14 Haines index....5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight. LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 1-8 strikes. Min temperature.....Around 69. Max humidity........84 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 23 mph decreasing to around 13 mph early in the morning. Gusts up to 32 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 16 to 25 mph shifting to the southeast 14 to 15 mph after 3 am. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky cover.......PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY Weather cov..... SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).10 30 30 20 LAL.............1 1 1 2 Temp............94 82 76 73 RH..............23 47 64 77 20 FT wind dir..E E E E 20 FT wind spd..16 23 17 15 20 FT wind gust.18 26 19 17 Mix hgt (ft)....8200 1400 1100 900 Transp wind dir.E E E SE Transp wind spd.17 25 20 16 Haines index....4 5 5 5 .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then No Tstms until 1600, then 1-8 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 97. Min humidity........24 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the south 10 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest 15 to 16 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....ISOLTD CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 40 LAL.............2 1 1 Temp............69 78 91 RH..............84 68 37 20 FT wind dir..E E S 20 FT wind spd..12 9 10 20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....800 3200 8300 Transp wind dir.E SE SW Transp wind spd.13 10 15 Haines index....3 4 3 $$ Forecaster...Deberry Requested by...Kasie Phillips Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2413663.0/MAF .DELDT 05/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL csdispatch@tfs.tamu.edu ####018002877#### FNUS75 KMSO 092344 FWSMSO Spot Forecast for Young Dodge 220 National Weather Service Missoula MT 544 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on May 13. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION...Increasing clouds on Monday with breezy conditions as an upper level wave moves across the region. There is a 60 percent chance for showers Monday afternoon. There is a 30 percent chance for greater than 0.05 of rain in the afternoon. There is a 45 percent chance for 0.05 of rain in the evening. There is a 40 percent chance for 0.04" of rain Tuesday afternoon. With the breezy conditions aloft, smoke dispersion should be good. There continues to be a bit of spread on model solutions with the timing of this Monday wave which could have implications for how strong the wind gusts could be Monday afternoon. If it moves through in the morning, then the building mixed layer would allow for stronger gusts greater than 30 mph to be an issue, but that location seems kind of protected to the west and southwest which could be a negating factor with the stronger winds. Right now, there is a 20 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 30 mph, 40 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 25 mph. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent. * Max Temperature.....63-68. * Min Humidity........27-35 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 11 to 16 mph with gusts 17 to 22 mph at noon, then increasing to southwest 14 to 18 mph with gusts 20 to 28 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl. * Mixing Winds........Southwest 20 mph. * Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. .MONDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain overnight. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...15 percent. * Min Temperature.....43-47. * Max Humidity........61-66 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 8 to 14 mph becoming south 6 to 10 mph late evening. * Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. * Mixing Winds........Southwest 14 mph. * Precip Amount.......0.03 inches. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...15 percent. * Max Temperature.....60-64. * Min Humidity........27-32 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 7-14 mph. * Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl. * Mixing Winds........West 10 mph. * Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. $$ Forecaster...Noble Requested by...Raymond Flanagan Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413659.0/MSO .DELDT 05/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL raymond.flanagan@usda.gov