####018006144#### FNUS73 KDMX 011554 FWSDMX Spot Forecast for Colwell...RES - p/ Iowa NRCS National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1054 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 01. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required. Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn. .DISCUSSION... Main push of rain will arrive later this afternoon, reaching the burn site after 3pm. RH values to drop into the low 30s this afternoon, but plenty of moisture is available from recent rainfall to dampen the chance for spread. Winds will veer through the day as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Winds in the morning will begin out of the northwest becoming north to northeast through the afternoon hours. Some gusts up to 30mph will be possible for the next 2-3 hours. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 69. Min humidity........35 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 18 mph. Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the north around 13 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (57300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........69 64 68 63 56 68 Weather cov..... SCH Weather type.... RW Tstm cov........ Temp............62 64 66 68 69 68 RH..............44 41 38 36 35 37 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW N N 20 FT wind spd..18 16 14 13 12 10 20 FT wind gust.26 23 20 17 16 15 Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.6 Transp wind dir.NW NW NW N N N Transp wind spd.23 22 18 15 14 13 GFDI............1 1 1 1 1 1 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 SDspl kt-ft/100047 57 48 41 37 28 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely overnight. Min temperature.....Around 51. Max humidity........83 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east around 15 mph early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 9 to 16 mph in the late evening and overnight, then increasing to 18 to 22 mph after 3 am. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the night. GFDI................0. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........69 61 75 77 85 88 Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Temp............67 61 55 53 52 51 RH..............40 53 66 74 77 83 20 ft wind......N 9 NE 7 E 8 E 10 E 13 E 14 20 ft wind gust.13 9 12 14 18 20 Mix hgt (ft)....1500 500 500 500 700 800 Transport wind..N 8 NE 6 E 9 E 13 E 16 E 18 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/100011 2 4 6 10 13 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers with thunderstorms likely. Max temperature.....Around 65. Min humidity........80 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 21 mph shifting to the south 15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 30 mph shifting to the south 18 to 23 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (34600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................1. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........91 96 95 94 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY Temp............52 52 58 62 RH..............80 93 90 90 20 FT wind......E 17G24 SE 20G26 SE 18G26 S 18G25 Mix hgt (ft)....1000 1300 1300 1200 Transport wind..E 22 SE 26 SE 29 S 23 GFDI............1 1 1 1 Haines index....4 2 2 3 SDspl kt-ft/100018 30 32 23 $$ Forecaster...Jimenez Requested by...Danny Simcox Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412929.0/DMX .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL dsimcox@res.us