####018010822#### WTUS82 KTAE 280915 HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-281715- Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7 National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL102023 515 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 /415 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/ This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia ...IDALIA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, and Leon - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Madison * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, and Leon - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, and Madison * STORM INFORMATION: - About 670 miles south of Steinhatchee River - 20.1N 85.2W - Storm Intensity 65 mph - Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Idalia continued to meander around the Yucatan CHannel while gaining strength overnight. At 5 AM EDT, the center of Idalia was located about 700 miles south of Steinhatchee, Florida. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. Idalia is expected to begin moving northward while increasing its forward speed today. Idalia will continue to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday over the eastern Gulf. Idalia is forecast to make landfall later Tuesday night along the nature coast. The potential for life-threatening storm surge around the shores of Apalachee Bay continues to increase. Storm surge will be highly dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values along and to the right of the center. Storm surge could start to build as soon as Tuesday afternoon, with peak surge values coming on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the possibility of life threatening inundation from rising water moving inland for much of Apalachee Bay, from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River. Storm surge inundation above normally dry ground could reach the following heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide: 2 to 4 feet from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 4 to 7 feet from the Ochlockonee River to the Aucilla River, and 7 to 11 feet from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. In addition, the odds of hurricane force winds are increasing over the southeast Big Bend Region, and the forecast hurricane intensity at landfall has increased since the last advisory. Idalia is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River, including inland portions of Taylor, Dixie, Lafayette, and Madison Counties. A Tropical Storm watch has been issued for inland Jefferson and Wakulla, as well as Leon counties. Flooding from heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado are possible. Life-threatening rip currents will affect beaches well away from the core of the storm. Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive along the coast on Tuesday evening, but they could arrive as early as Tuesday afternoon. It is recommended that preparations for Idalia be completed before sunset on Tuesday, if not sooner. Expect downed trees and powerlines, with prolonged power outages possible. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of Idalia, especially in the Florida Big Bend, where 4 to 8 inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts possible. This could lead to flash flooding. The storm should be moving fast enough to preclude river flooding at this time. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant to extensive impacts across Wakulla and Jefferson Counties. Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Franklin and Gulf Counties. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across coastal Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts in the far eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest and south central Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll. Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the eastern and coastal Big Bend and Lowndes and Lanier Counties in Georgia. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders. If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$