####018006086#### WTPQ82 PGUM 081056 HLSPQ2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) Local Statement National Weather Service TIYAN GU 856 PM ChST Sun Oct 8 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS... .NEW INFORMATION... The latest forecast track for Tropical Storm Bolaven has shifted slightly north with a passage favored to be near to slightly north of Rota. However, tropical storm to typhoon conditions are still possible for all of the Mariana Islands. .AREAS AFFECTED... This local statement provides important information and recommended actions for people in Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along with adjacent coastal waters. .Watches/Warnings... A Typhoon Watch continues for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, along with adjacent coastal waters. A Typhoon Watch means that typhoon conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be issued for your area. .STORM INFORMATION... At 7 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) was located near LATITUDE 9.7N and LONGITUDE 152.2E. This was about 560 miles east-southeast of Guam. Storm motion was west at 8 mph. Storm intensity has increased to 45 mph. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... A Typhoon Watch is in effect. When making decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track. TS Bolaven (15W) continues to strengthen over northern Chuuk State and is moving west. It is too early to provide exact wind and coastal inundation forecast values for specific locations in the Marianas. A general concern should be for the possibility of at least extensive damage somewhere within the Mariana Islands. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For those under a watch, continue preparations for your home or business according to your typhoon disaster plan. Listen for possible warnings and be ready to evacuate if necessary. Heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. For interests at ports, docks and marinas, it is recommended that you perform the prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat, begin to safely secure your craft and make plans to leave it for adequate land-based shelter. Listen for possible warnings. Regarding the Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan coastal waters, small craft should return to port or seek safe harbor. Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. For additional precautionary and preparedness information, please refer to detailed recommendations from your local emergency management agencies. && .NEXT UPDATE... The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam around 3 AM ChST, or sooner if conditions warrant. GUZ001-MPZ001>003-081900- /O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.4015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 856 PM ChST Sun Oct 8 2023 ...TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay calm and keep informed. If your home is vulnerable to high winds, or you live in a low-lying area along the coast or any location prone to flooding, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends. Some suggested items to bring to a shelter include a first aid kit, medicines and prescriptions, baby food and diapers, games and books, toiletries, a battery-powered radio, a cell phone, flashlights with extra batteries, a blanket or sleeping bag for each person, personal identification, copies of key papers such as insurance policies, available cash and credit cards. Remember, pets are not allowed in most public shelters, so check ahead with your intended shelter. Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. Do this as early as possible. && ...TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/TYPHOON CONDITIONS... The onset of tropical storm conditions could start as early as Tuesday morning with the onset of typhoon force conditions possibly by Tuesday evening. The probability for tropical storm force wind speed is 70 to 90 percent. The probability for typhoon force wind speed is 20 to 30 percent for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. The probability of typhoon force wind speed for Guam is 10 to 20 percent. ...WIND INFORMATION... As Tropical Storm Bolaven (15W) moves closer to the Marianas, the threat of sustained high winds will increase. The latest forecast is for tropical storm force winds to come in as early as early Tuesday morning. Strong tropical storm or typhoon force winds are possible by Tuesday evening. A general concern should be for the possibility of at least damaging winds somewhere within this area. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... Seas of 22 to 26 feet are possible. Hazardous surf conditions are possible beginning Monday evening and continuing through at least Thursday. Highest surf conditions expected to begin along east and possibly south facing reefs on Tuesday as Bolaven nears. Surf increasing and likely becoming dangerous for north and west facing reefs on Wednesday as Bolaven passes to the northwest of the Marianas. Inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... Heavy rainfall is likely from late Monday evening through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts in excess of 12 inches are possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect starting Monday afternoon to at least Wednesday afternoon. $$ Slagle