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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 2

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL162023

526 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023



This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia



**Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Friday 

Night Through Early Sunday** 

 



NEW INFORMATION

---------------



* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Calvert and St. 

      Marys



* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys



* STORM INFORMATION:

    - About 670 miles south of Washington DC or about 680 miles south 

      of Annapolis MD

    - 29.2N 75.9W

    - Storm Intensity 35 mph

    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 8 mph



SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move northward toward 

the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday before moving northward near 

the Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday through Sunday. 



The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to 3 

feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the 

Chesapeake Bay as well as the shore of the Tidal Potomac River. The 

highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday 

through Saturday night. 



Rainfall will most likely average between 1 to 3 inches with 

localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible. The best chance for 

the highest rainfall amounts will be near and east of Interstate 95. 

This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for 

low lying and flood prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to 

occur Saturday into Saturday night. 



Tropical Storm force winds are most likely over southern Maryland 

and the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay 

and south of Cobb Island along the Tidal Potomac River. However, 

gale-force winds are expected along the waters father north along 

the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Tidal Potomac River. Gusty winds 

and a saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages. 



POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------



* SURGE:

Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time 

across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern 

and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia.



* FLOODING RAIN:



Isolated instances of flooding are possible due to locally heavy rainfall. 

The best chance for flooding will be in low lying flood prone areas. 



* WIND:

Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across, 

      mainly across southern Maryland. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 

      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 

      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 

      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.

    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 

      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 

      bridges and other elevated roadways.

    - Scattered power and communications outages.



Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, 

Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little 

to no impact is anticipated.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------



Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets 

for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes 

to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather 

warnings.



* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org



NEXT UPDATE

-----------



The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 

Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 830 PM EDT, or sooner if 

conditions warrant.



$$