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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 3

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL162023

1107 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023



This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia



**Tropical Storm Conditions Expected over Southern Maryland Friday 

Night Through Early Sunday** 



NEW INFORMATION

---------------



* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - None



* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys



* STORM INFORMATION:

    - About 660 miles south of Washington DC

    - 29.5N 75.3W

    - Storm Intensity 40 mph

    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 3 mph



SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move northward toward the

Mid-Atlantic Coast through Friday before moving northward near the

Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday through Sunday. 



The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to

3 feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the

Chesapeake Bay as well as the shore of the tidal Potomac River. The

highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday

through Saturday night. 



Rainfall will most likely average between 2 to 4 inches with localized

amounts up to 5 inches possible. This may result in isolated instances 

of flooding, especially for low lying and flood prone areas. The 

heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. 



Tropical Storm force winds are most likely over southern Maryland and

the nearby waters south of North Beach along the Chesapeake Bay and

south of Cobb Island along the Tidal Potomac River. However,

gale-force winds are expected along the waters father north along the

Chesapeake Bay as well as the Tidal Potomac River. Gusty winds and a

saturated ground may cause downed trees and power outages.



POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------



* SURGE:

Moderate tidal inundation is possible along the shore of the Chesapeake Bay 

and tidal Potomac River. 

    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along 

      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas 

      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.

    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread 

      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where 

      surge water covers the road.

    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly 

      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.

    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, 

      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.



* FLOODING RAIN:

Isolated instances of flooding are possible due to locally heavy 

rainfall. The best chance for flooding will be in low lying flood 

prone areas.

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and 

      rescues.

    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter 

      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially 

      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, 

      arroyos, and ditches overflow.

    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. 

      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid 

      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 

      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as 

      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions 

      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.



Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible 

limited impacts across southern Maryland. 



* WIND:

Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts.

Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 

      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 

      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are 

      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.

    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban 

      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on 

      bridges and other elevated roadways.

    - Scattered power and communications outages.





* TORNADOES:

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts 

across southern Maryland. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 

      of emergency plans during tropical events.

    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 

      and communications disruptions.

    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 

      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 

      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 

      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 

      pulled from moorings.





PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------



Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets 

for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes 

to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather 

warnings.





* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org



NEXT UPDATE

-----------



The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 

Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 5:30 AM, or sooner if 

conditions warrant.



$$