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AGUS74 KWCO 291522

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

915 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024



.Synopsis...

Rainfall continues in the Pacific Northwest...Heavy rainfall potential  

early next week across the Gulf Coast States...



.Discussion...



.Pacific Northwest...

Both small stream rises and isolated minor to moderate river flooding are  

possible through today along the foothills of the Cascades as periods of  

moderate rainfall continue. Guidance from both the GFS and NBM-forced  

National Water Model (NWM) continue to indicate small stream responses  

along the western slopes of the Cascades through day 2 (Fri). Another  

system may bring potentially heavy rainfall to the region early next week  

however, there remains uncertainty in the exact placement and magnitude of  

potential impacts at this time.



.Gulf Coast States...

There is potential for at least localized flooding impacts early to mid  

next week (days 5 - 6) across portions of LA, MS, and AL as a frontal  

system will generate periods of showers and thunderstorms across the  

region. Ahead of this rainfall, both soil moisture and streamflows are near  

climatological normals for this time of year. Forecast rainfall (up to  

1.5") over the next 24 - 48 hours will likely not be enough to prime soils  

ahead of the rainfall early next week and a period of dry weather this  

weekend should allow for some soil moisture recovery. While both the GFS  

and the NBM-forced NWM indicate some small stream responses across this  

region, confidence is low in the placement and magnitude of these  

responses, due to model inconsistencies. However, given the potential for  

multiple days of rainfall, this area will need to be closely monitored.



//JDP











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