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AGUS74 KWCO 011520

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

915 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024



.Synopsis...

Heavy rainfall potential next week across the Gulf Coast States into the  

Appalachian Foothills...



.Discussion...



.Gulf Coast States into the Appalachian Foothills...

There is potential for at least localized flooding impacts beginning early  

next week and continuing through the following weekend (days 5 - 10) as  

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Ahead  

of this period, soil moisture is near climatological normal for this 

time of year. Streamflows are below normal at the time of this 

discussion, but rainfall today should serve to increase base flow to 

some extent.



Both the GFS and NBM-forced National Water Model (NWM) indicate small  

stream responses starting as early as day 4 (Mon) across portions of LA,  

MS, and AL and continuing through the middle portion of the week. While  

overall confidence is increasing in this flood potential, the precise  

placement and magnitude of the stream responses remain more uncertain.



Although there will be a break in precipitation in this region during the  

middle portion of the week, soils will remain wetter than normal and  

streamflows will remain elevated. Given a continued active weather pattern,  

as additional precipitation moves through the region late next week into  

the following weekend (days 8 - 10), renewed rises may occur in the same  

areas affected by the early week rainfall, and there are also stream  

responses in both the GFS and NBM-forced NWM in the Appalachian Foothills  

from GA through the Carolinas into VA. Ensemble river forecasts indicate  

potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding in these same areas.



//JE







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