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AGUS74 KWCO 021516

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

915 AM CST SAT MAR 2 2024



.Synopsis...

Heavy rainfall potential next week across the Gulf Coast States into the  

Appalachian Foothills...



.Discussion...



.Gulf Coast States into the Appalachian Foothills...

There is potential for at least localized flooding impacts beginning early  

next week (days 3 - 7) as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms move  

through the region. Ahead of this period, given recent rainfall (1 - 1.5"  

past 24 hours (MRMS)), soil moisture is normal to wet (50 - 75%, 0 - 10 cm  

Relative Soil Moisture (RSM) NASA SPoRT) and streamflows are normal  

compared to historical streamflows for all days of the year. While  

forecasted rainfall totals (1 - 3") suggest mainly beneficial  

precipitation, localized flooding impacts cannot be ruled out with some  

totals up to 5". According to ensemble river forecasts, minor to isolated  

moderated flooding is possible.



Both the GFS and NBM-forced National Water Model (NWM) indicate small  

stream responses starting as early as day 4 (Tue) across portions of LA,  

MS, AL, GA and SC and continuing through the end of the week. While overall  

confidence is increasing in this flood potential, the precise placement and  

magnitude of the stream responses remain more uncertain.



Given a continued active weather pattern, as additional precipitation moves  

through the region early next week through the end of the week, renewed  

rises may occur in the same areas affected by the early week rainfall.



//Kirkpatrick







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