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AGUS76 KRSA 022158

HMDRSA



Hydrometeorological Discussion

National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA

130 PM PST Sat Mar 2 2024



...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THIS 

EVENING THEN PRECIP TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AS A COOL TROUGH MOVES 

THROUGH THE REGION...

...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SRN OR AND NRN AND CENTRAL CA 

AND NRN NV MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY...





.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT PM - FRI AM)...



Little change to the afternoon forecast except increased amounts i 

the Central SJ Valley with a bands of locally moderate to heavy 

precip moving through the Central and Srn SJ Valley and into the 

foothills. Increased amounts slightly for San Diego region as front 

moves through this afternoon and from the Russian to the San Lucia 

Mtns this evening. 



Upper level trough over the region with associated low pressure 

centered off B.C. coast and cold front draped over the region around 

LA County and NE into the Srn Sierra and into Central and Eastern 

NV. Showers moving through the region into this evening. Isolated 

Thunderstorms possible today, mainly over Nrn and Central CA and 

into far western NV and over Eastern NV into this evening. Precip 

will taper off overnight into Sunday with scattered showers. 

Heaviest precip is expected in the Srn Sierra with 2-5 inches and 

San Bernardino Mtns 1-3 inches today. Precip amounts will be 

variable due to convection. HREF exceedance probabilities are about 

10-20% for 0.50"/hr rainfall rates possible for CA into this 

evening, especially over the Srn Sierra and NW CA coast. Precip 

amounts for Sunday are expected to ne 0.5-1.5 inches for the Nrn and 

Central Sierra and Smith Basin and 0.1-0.5 inches from the Eel to 

the Central Coast ans along the San Bernardino mtns to Peninsular 

rang and over Nrn Nv mtns and generally a quarter of an inch or less 

elsewhere.  



Another upper trough moves into and through the Pac NW on Monday 

into Tuesday bringing more precip to Srn OR and Nrn and Central CA 

and Nrn NV. Precip amount and southern extent of precip varies with 

the models and ensemble members with the GFS mainly drier and 

farther north than the EC. trimmed back the southern extent of 

precip on Tuesday but ensemble members vary with more of the Canadian 

members farthest north and the EC farther south to around Point 

Conception. A low in the Eastern Pacific moves southeast approaching 

130W offshore of the CA coast Tuesday and off Point Conception and 

the Srn CA coast later Wednesday and into Baja Thursday morning. 

This may bring some showers to the region Wednesday. Models vary 

with the details of this low and how close it will be to the coast 

(Ec closer to the coast than GFS). High pressure from the Eastern 

Pacific builds in on Thursday for drier conditions.



Freezing levels generally around 1500 ft near ORCA border and around 

2500 ft near I-80 and around 4500 ft for Srn Sierra and 5000-7500 ft 

for Srn CA this morning and fluctuate before rising to around 2500 

ft near ORCA border and 3500 ft near I-80 and 5000 ft for Srn Sierra 

Sunday afternoon.  Freezing levels rise to around 4000 ft near ORCA 

border and 5500 ft near I-80 and 7000 ft for the Srn Sierra Tuesday.



Max temperatures forecast to be around 5 to 20 degrees below normal 

today into Monday then near normal to 15 degrees below normal for 

mid-week. Overnight temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees below normal 

for Srn OR and Nrn CA and near normal to 10 degrees below normal for 

most of NV and Central and Srn CA Sunday morning and below normal to 

around 15 degrees for most of the region Monday morning and near 

normal for Tuesday and Wednesday morning (except north up to 15 

degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday mornings). 





QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php







Osborne



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