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AGUS74 KWCO 111502

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

1015 AM CDT MON MAR 11 2024



.Synopsis...

River flooding ongoing and forecast in the Southeast... Rainfall returns to  

the ArkLaTex and the Southeast later this week... Recessions continue in  

the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...



.Discussion...



.ArkLaTex and the Southeast...

Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing and forecast across MS, AL, GA,  

and SC due to recent rainfall, and will likely continue into and through  

this week for many locations. Most locations have already crested however  

many of the forecast locations on larger rivers closer to the coasts will  

continue to rise through the week.



Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are forecast to return to the  

ArkLaTex late on day 4 (Thu) and expand into the Southeast on days 5 and 6  

(Fri and Sat). Elevated streamflows and wet soils will have some time to  

recover ahead of this rainfall, and the amounts and locations of the  

rainfall remain somewhat uncertain due to the extended nature of the  

forecast. Additionally, models vary significantly on the overall placement  

and magnitude of the rainfall. However, the potential for at least isolated  

flooding impacts is present, though it is too early to outline specific  

areas.



.Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

Widespread elevated flows continue including scattered minor river flooding  

following recent rainfall and snowmelt (Northeast). Most locations have  

crested and with very little precipitation expected over the next 7 days,  

recessions should continue unimpeded.



//Smith







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